Showing posts with label keynes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label keynes. Show all posts

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Monkey Trials

Science threatens religion not so much because it disproves religious belief, but because the output of the scientific method tends to bring scientists to consensus. For example, Satyendra Nath Bose and Albert Einstein collaborated on quantum statistics in the 1920's despite the fact that they were from very different cultures. They produced what is now called "Bose-Einstein statistics." The scientific method defines a way for thinkers to agree with one another no matter what their backgrounds. Scientific thinking converges. For example, despite a temporary defeat, the court of reality ultimately overturned the human court's decision in the original "Scopes Monkey Trial."

The output of religious thinking, on the other hand, seems to affect religious thinkers in the opposite way. Religious thinkers seem to look for ways to disagree with one another. As a result, the world is filled with different religions, denominations, sects, and splinter groups. One would think that if religious belief had any connection with an underlying reality, then the trend of religious thought would converge rather than diverge.

We bring this up in order to highlight the divergent nature of economic thinking. One result of the Great Recession was to paste a big "Epic Failure" sign on the backs of all our economists. After decades of study and effort, meetings and arguments, published reports and reviewed papers, none of them were able to predict a major, world-shaking economic event like the Great Recession in such a way as to convince most other economists of the danger.

Like religious thinkers, current economists cannot even agree on a way to agree with one another. The result is that we can find reputable economists who will take opposite sides on most any question. This allows politicians to pick the economic policies they want and then find economists to support them rather than use any rational basis for their decisions.

The point is not that we at tosoc.org think we have a truly scientific approach to economics that has the power to convince most other economists of the value of our proposals. The point is that after the Great Recession, current economics is no longer reputable. The Great Recession exposed the fact that devising economic policies today is, at best, a guessing game that anyone can play. Today's economics lost its trial in the court of reality. It is time to challenge conventional economic wisdom, and that is what we are doing at tosoc.org.

(Please note that once again, we are trying to shorten our posts so we can work on our book.)


The way capitalism should be.

Socialism for the socialists and capitalism for the capitalists.

TheOtherSideOfCapitalism (admin@tosoc.org)

Copyright © 2014 TheOtherSideOfCapitalism

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Demon Profit

We have all heard that money is the root of all evil, or perhaps that the love of money is the root of all evil. Some people equate profit with the love of money and therefore with evil. As a result, many of those who speak about "profit" and the "profit motive" load the word "profit" with negative connotations.

At tosoc.org we do not have feelings one way or the other about profit because one of our principles is that those who can produce more than they consume should do so. Or, if you prefer, we should all make more than we spend so that we can build up savings. Savings, which is profit in the accounting sense. See our post Theory of Wealth.

While we think that the word "profit" has an undeserved bad reputation, the rich do tend to increase their own profits at times when the poor are losing their savings. For example, hedge fund manager John Paulson is said to have earned, personally, almost $4 billion in 1987 by using credit default swaps to hedge against the US housing market. Mr Paulson and his investors were raking it in while the rest of us were suffering. Yet Mr Paulson and investors like him did nothing illegal or even overtly immoral as far as we know.

Even so, there is currently an economic ratchet effect in which the rich get richer in good times and bad times while the rest of us lose our savings in bad times. (See also our post Left for Dead.) Unstopped, the ultimate result of this trend will be that the rich will end up with almost everything and the rest of us will end up with almost nothing. Ever-greater income and wealth inequality is not sustainable. It is a harbinger of the breakdown of the social contract between the rich and poor in the US.


So what is the real problem here? Are profits good or evil? Should profit be our goal or not? The tosoc.org answer is that profit should be our goal, but only in the context of balanced competitive markets. Right now the markets are not as balanced or competitive as they should be. Mr Paulson and his investors made extraordinary profits only because he and other rich people were able to hedge against our home loans, while, in effect, the rest of us were not.

If we are to feel that our toil is really leading to a better society instead of being, as we wrote in another post, The Capitalist Road to Serfdom, then when we build up savings, they should not be so vulnerable and so easily destroyed by the worldwide financial shenanigans of the rich. But how can we do that when the rich make the markets and have direct access to our savings; our invested profits? We cannot.

Again, the only solution is to deny the rich direct access to our markets and thus to our invested profits. That is what tosoc.org's plan of multiple exclusive markets and currencies is all about. So yes, we want profits. We need to produce more than we consume so that we are not stuck in lives of mere subsistence, of bare survival. We need the extra resources so we can increase our capital and at the same time, build an ever-better, ever-wealthier society. But it is pointless to do that when the capital that we build up is so vulnerable to mistakes, thoughtlessness, or even ill-will on the part of the rich. Support tosoc.org.


The way capitalism should be.


Socialism for the socialists and capitalism for the capitalists.


TheOtherSideOfCapitalism (admin@tosoc.org)


Copyright © 2014 TheOtherSideOfCapitalism





Saturday, February 15, 2014

Brutal on the Population

See the Wall Street Journal opinion piece Mi Amor, I Shrunk the Peso by Mary Anastasia O'Grady (February 2nd, 2014). The article is about Argentina's devaluation and history of devaluations, but there are also notes from an interview with Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan. Here is what caught our attention:
"Marking down the currency is the least-painful path for the state when it cannot meet its obligations. But as Mr. Noonan pointed out, it's brutal on the population. Devaluation reduces the purchasing power of the nation. Real wages and the real value of nest eggs belonging to ordinary people are cut from one day to the next. 
What is worse, Mr. Noonan observed, is that few countries go through a mega-devaluation only once. 'It becomes a habit.'"
We suspect that the rich in Argentina keep their wealth in commodities or in external financial instruments denominated in strong currencies. Or perhaps they own strong external currencies outright. Otherwise we do not see how they could remain rich in global terms. Owning the Argentine peso is clearly not the way to secure one's wealth.

To us this is yet another example of the rich using arbitrage to transfer our wealth to themselves. See for example our post Take from the Poor about how this is done. Based on what we see in Ms O'Grady's opinion piece, the rich in Argentina have been playing this game and "brutalizing" the Argentine population (to use Minister Noonan's word) for about two hundred years.

This means that the rich marginalize themselves. They "raise" themselves "above" local populations, becoming more citizens of the world than citizens of any particular nation. It is a side-effect of putting oneself in a position to take advantage of arbitrage.

Several points come out of this line of thought. First, if one is concerned about the stratification of society, it already exists. The rich think of themselves as being on a higher level. Therefore the issue is not so much how to prevent stratification but how to structure it in a reasonable way to prevent abuse.

Second, multiple worldwide currencies and markets already exist. The problem once again is how to structure them in reasonable ways to prevent abuses like the ongoing "brutalization" of the Argentine population.

Third, capitalism as it is now conceived will not fix itself. Capitalism is working as designed. We see in Ms O'Grady's article that the rich in Argentina have been taking advantage of that for a few hundred years.

One way to see the central problem is that the rich want to elevate themselves above the rest of us, but not so far that they cannot still control our economies for their own profit. Tosoc.org says that we should complete the separation by moving them into their own markets with their own currencies. Then we will be able to negotiate with the rich on a more equal basis and prevent abuses like the Great Recession and the devaluation in Argentina.


The way capitalism should be.


Socialism for the socialists and capitalism for the capitalists.


TheOtherSideOfCapitalism (admin@tosoc.org)


Copyright © 2014 TheOtherSideOfCapitalism





Saturday, February 8, 2014

Truth and Reconciliation

Those of you who are managers may have been offended by our last two posts, Stupid Management Tricks and Ambition? Or All In?. If so, we want you to know that we wish you well. We just think that you wield too much power over your employees.

We know that some of you are wonderful managers who are beloved by your employees. Hey, can we come work for you? On the other hand, some of you are not wonderful managers.

If you are familiar with South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission, you know that it was set up to deal with the effects of apartheid as part of the end of apartheid. We think it was a very wise approach because the purpose was not to identify and punish the guilty, but to bring the truth into the open. They recognized that trying to punish most everyone in an entire society guilty of discrimination, human rights violations, and violence was an impossible task, one in which the truth would get lost among all the lies. The attempt itself would become an open sore on the society, leading to many more years of violence, and give rise to witch hunts.

Instead, the Commission just asked for the truth. Those who testified could apply for amnesty and receive no punishment for their actions. Victims were identified and compensated. This approach rapidly led to peace and to the end of apartheid. Reconciliation was accomplished very quickly, in our view.

In the same spirit, it is not our purpose to criminalize managers or rich people. It is our purpose to get them to see what they do in a new light. Some of the things they must do, the things they would rather the public not know about, are no longer necessary.

For example, take the period of the Great Recession in the US. Some of you were managers in that period. Some of you knew about coming layoffs and concealed that information from your employees. In answer to their anxious questions, you outright lied to them. Perhaps you even painted a rosy picture of the future for them. After all, morale had to be maintained.

Then you laid off your employees. In tens, hundreds, even thousands. There you were, knowingly dumping them into a terrible job market, knowing that many of them would lose their homes and not be able to support their families. Perhaps their families would break up. No one we want to know would feel good about that.

You had to do it because you were ordered to do it. It was your job and your responsibility. They told you it had to be done. But if you are a decent human being, you did not like it and you wish it had not happened.

The trouble is that it was not necessary. These days most human suffering is caused by humans. For example, here is what John Maynard Keynes said at the beginning of the Great Depression:
"This is a nightmare, which will pass away with the morning. For the resources of nature and men's devices are just as fertile and productive as they were. The rate of our progress towards solving the material problems of life is not less rapid. We are as capable as before of affording for everyone a high standard of life ... and will soon learn to afford a standard higher still. We were not previously deceived. But to-day we have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand. The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time — perhaps for a long time."
We generally agree with Keynes here, especially regarding our times and the Great Recession. We are now many generations off the farm and we are generally much better educated than people were in 1930. We all know the work that we have to do to keep everyone fed, clothed, sheltered, and in as good health as nature allows.

Despite that, we allowed our highest economic and political leaders to blunder (as Keynes said) in the control of the delicate machine. The competency and good will of our leadership was and is in question. How could the Great Recession happen? If it was not intentional, then why is the system so delicate? How is it that our highest leaders would allow digits on their balance sheets to lead to a huge economic mess and increased human suffering?

The tosoc.org explanation is that the natural result of capitalism is rich people, but rich people are not devoted to capitalism. They are devoted to keeping and increasing their riches. Once the rich become rich enough, Adam Smith's "invisible hand" suddenly becomes visible, and at that point, things are wide open. You can then pick your metaphor for how the rich destroy the system that made them. The heavy finger of the rich tilts the playing field in their favor—something that can only be expected. They just take advantage of their advantages, but they have a lot more advantages than we do. They change the game in their favor. They distort the markets in their favor. The rich cheat, if you will, although in general we do not think of it that way. See our post The Guilty Innocents.

It seems obvious to us, therefore, that the way to make the system more robust is to separate the rich markets from the poor markets. Make the competition balanced in every market. The rich can only destroy the markets in which they compete.

Naturally, splitting up markets and currencies is not a capitalist thing to do. It must be done by governments. Some might not like that, but we ask you. How much less capitalist would that be compared to what we do today? When governments borrow trillions (from the rich) to keep the private banks from collapsing?

Coming back to management and today's managers, we think it would be a lot less stressful for well-intentioned managers if laying people off meant just lost income, not also lost livelihoods, loss of homes, and possibly the breakup of families. The whole employer-employee relationship would be less tense than it is today. Especially during economic downturns, employees would never feel themselves under the almost life-or-death pressure to keep their jobs. Employers would not have to deal with those emotions.

For those of you managers who enjoy having an almost life-or-death whip hand over your employees, we do not have much use for you. We think you are bad managers. We are not out to punish you, but we want to take the whip out of your hand.

For those of you managers who are well-intentioned and sympathetic toward your employees, we want you to be able to exercise your leadership rather than a whip that you are uncomfortable using. We think that under our system, the employees of bad managers will migrate to you and your benign leadership. Ultimately bad managers will have no more employees and be driven out of the system, improving life for everyone.

Finally, managers would be able to both hire and fire faster and easier. We think that under the current system, the consequences (or costs) of firing someone is too severe for both the employee and the employer. This feeds back into the hiring process, where taking someone on must be weighed carefully against the possibility that you will have to let them go. If workers could change jobs faster without fear of personal financial destruction, they would find their best-fit employment more quickly. There should be major economic advantages to that for our entire system. Economists these days talk about the problem of "sticky wages" in economic downturns. Perhaps we have a solution to that for them here at tosoc.org.


The way capitalism should be.


Socialism for the socialists and capitalism for the capitalists.


TheOtherSideOfCapitalism (admin@tosoc.org)


Copyright © 2014 TheOtherSideOfCapitalism